Lung cancer remains Australia’s leading cause of cancer deaths despite improving survival, new AIHW data shows.
Lung cancer claims about 9000 Australian lives in a year, maintaining its position as the nation’s deadliest cancer despite gains in survival and a steep fall in mortality among men.
The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare estimated about 15,100 people were diagnosed with lung cancer in 2025, making it Australia’s fourth most commonly diagnosed cancer.
But the disease was expected to cause more deaths than any other malignancy, according to the latest update of the AIHW’s Cancer data in Australia report, released this week.
Lung cancer also had the lowest survival rate among Australia’s five most frequently diagnosed cancers, sitting at 27% for people diagnosed during 2017–2021. This was well below the 71.6% survival rate for all cancers combined for the same period.
The longer-term figures nevertheless show considerable progress. Five-year survival for men with lung cancer rose from 9.7% in 1992-1996 to 23% in 2017-2021. Among women, it increased from 12% to 33%.
Survival differed sharply by age. It reached 90% among people diagnosed at ages 20–24, 80% among those aged 25–29, and 60% among those aged 30–34.
For patients aged between 40 and 74 years, five-year survival ranged from 29% to 38%. It fell to just 9% among people aged 85 years and older.
The national incidence rate has remained relatively stable, declining slightly from 57 cases per 100,000 people in 2000 to an estimated 55 cases per 100,000 in 2025.
The data shows markedly different trends between men and women.
The lung cancer incidence rate among men fell from 85 cases per 100,000 in 2000 to an estimated 60 per 100,000 in 2025.
Among women, the rate rose from 36 to an estimated 51 cases per 100,000 over the same period.
The divergence reflects historical differences in smoking patterns, with the burden of tobacco-related disease emerging later among women than men.
The changing incidence pattern has also altered the distribution of cancer deaths. Lung cancer caused about 15% of cancer deaths among women in 2000, increasing to an estimated 17% in 2025.
Among men, the proportion fell from 22% to 17%.
Mortality rates have followed a similar trajectory. The age-standardised lung cancer mortality rate for men almost halved, falling from 74 deaths per 100,000 in 2000 to an estimated 39 per 100,000 in 2025.
The mortality rate among women remained lower but initially moved in the opposite direction, rising from 30 deaths per 100,000 in 2000 to a peak of 32 per 100,000 in 2010. It subsequently declined to an estimated 27 deaths per 100,000 in 2025.
“The increasing incidence rates of this low survival cancer have seen lung cancer account for increasing proportions of cancer deaths for females,” the AIHW reported.
“In 2000, lung cancer accounted for around 15% of cancer deaths in females and is estimated to be 17% in 2025. Conversely, lung cancer represented 22% of all cancer deaths for males in 2000 and this has reduced to 17% in 2025.”
The figures reinforced the importance of detecting lung cancer before it spreads.
Among people diagnosed during 2011-2016, five-year survival reached 68% for stage I lung cancer. Survival fell to 32% for stage II disease, 17% for stage III disease and 3.2% for stage IV disease.
However, most lung cancers were diagnosed after distant spread had occurred. Among cases diagnosed in 2011 for which a stage could be derived, 59% were stage IV.
Only 16% were stage I, while stage II accounted for 9% and stage III accounted for 16%.
The launch of the National Lung Cancer Screening Program in July 2025 marked a major shift in Australia’s approach to the disease.
The program uses low-dose computed tomography to screen people at high risk of lung cancer before they develop symptoms.
Eligible participants include people aged 50-70 years, who currently smoke or stopped smoking within the past 10 years, and have accumulated a smoking history of at least 30 pack-years. They must also be asymptomatic.
“The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare will provide data about the NLSCP as it becomes available,” the report said.
Screening offers an opportunity to shift the stage distribution towards potentially curable disease, although its effect on population-level incidence, mortality, and survival will take years to become clear.
The report also highlights the biological diversity hidden within broad cancer-site categories.
In 2021, the lung was the most common site for neuroendocrine neoplasms, with about 1800 cases. These neoplasms accounted for around 14% of lung cancers diagnosed that year.
Outcomes varied dramatically according to histology. Five-year relative survival was 9.7% for lung neuroendocrine carcinomas but 91.2% for lung neuroendocrine tumours. Survival was 14.9% for mixed neuroendocrine and non-neuroendocrine lung neoplasms and 23.2% for lung neuroendocrine neoplasms overall.
The contrast underlines the importance of accurate pathological classification and the limitations of considering all lung cancers as a single disease.
The AIHW noted that the histology data provided in the report was experimental.
“Over time, diagnostic capabilities for cancer continue to improve. These improvements can lead to changes from more a general diagnosis of cancer type to more specific diagnosis,” it said.
“Accordingly, some incidence rates for cancers by histology may be increasing due to improvements in cancer diagnostic capabilities rather than a genuine increase of the cancer.”
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There was some good news in the report for First Nations people, with first-of-its-kind data showing that cancer outcomes for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people are improving, with both cancer incidence and mortality rates declining.
However, First Nations people remain more likely to be diagnosed with cancers that have lower survival rates, including lung and liver cancer.
In 2025, there were an estimated 3600 cancer cases and 1200 cancer deaths among First Nations people. Lung cancer was the most commonly diagnosed cancer among First Nations people, followed by prostate, breast, bowel, and melanoma of the skin.
After adjusting for differences in age over time, the cancer incidence rate for First Nations people decreased from 342 to an estimated 315 cases per 100,000 people between 2011 and 2025.
In the same period, the mortality rate also decreased from 148 to 105 deaths per 100,000 people. Although these rates remain higher than the non-Indigenous population, the decreases are greater than for the non-Indigenous population.
“This is the most comprehensive cancer data available for First Nations people to date,” said AIHW spokesperson Justin Harvey.
“With a more complete picture of cancer outcomes, alongside more detailed information about geography and socioeconomic status, it becomes possible to identify where disparities are greatest and where targeted action can make the biggest difference.”
Read the full report here.
